Reserve Risk in 2019 has recently hit a low near what was seen in 2011, but not quite as low as in 2015. Binary Adjusted BDD, VOCD and Reserve Risk give us conviction the market bottom is behind us, and give us clues to what the future may look like.

Realized Cap assigns a price to each UTXO at the time of last outgoing transaction. Realized Cap de-emphasizes lost or unused tokens and presents a final layer of the entire ecosystem’s cost basis.

Begins with an excellent summary on Bitcoin valuation history and subsequently introduces 1) Relative Unrealized P&L, which quantifies investor sentiment; 2) Liveness, which quantifies the extent to which savers are using a crypto; and 3) HODLer Net Position Change, which quantifies whale buying and selling.

Delta Cap is a hybrid indicator that is partially fundamental analysis and partially technical analysis. Delta Cap is the difference between Realized Cap as defined by CoinMetrics and Average Cap defined as the simple moving average of market capitalization life-to-date.

Building on top of Nic Carter's Realized Cap metric, Realized Cap is compared to Market Cap, which is presented historically side-by-side and also as an oscillating ratio. MVRV has become a staple valuation metric.

A compelling case made for the accuracy of logarithmic regression in predicting BTC price. Uses Facebook user growth to exemplify the power of this methodology. Adding bull and bear cycle analysis on top of the logarithmic regression increases forecasting precision.

Building on top of MVRV, "MVRV Z" normalizes the MVRV oscillator as a Z-score and compares that to BTC historical Market Cap, Realized Cap and the log trend of Realized Cap. Even further signal is brought to the Realized Cap metric with this article.

The HODL Wave chart is a seminal visualization of the BTC’s UTXO age distribution, bucketed into age categories from <1D to>5Y. HODL Waves is the historical analysis of large-scale market behavior.

Liveliness is defined as the ratio of the sum of Bitcoin Days Destroyed to the sum of Bitcoin Days Created and is presented as a percentage from 0 to 100%. Liveliness gives insight to behavior of investors. It increases as long-term holders liquidate positions and decreases while they accumulate and HODL.

Wences Casares, CEO of the Bitcoin wallet company Xapo makes a case for allocating a small amount of every portfolio to Bitcoin because of the unique value Bitcoin has via its sovereignty, and the potential for large returns relative to the risk taken.

Highlights the Velocity Problem for utility tokens, makes the comparison of utility tokens to working capital and proposes that any crypto asset that is not viewed as a store of value will have a difficult time accruing value over the long-term.

A formative thesis on the investment opportunity set of the crypto asset landscape.

Introduces the concept of productive and non-productive crypto asset classifications and presents differing valuation characteristics for each.

A foundational taxonomy of token characteristics and framework for assesing crypto asset utility.

An hour long conference call with slide presentation on crypto asset valuation fundamentals. Some of this material has subsequently been disproven.

Introductory overview of two types of utility token models that may be promising: 1) Work Tokens; and 2) Burn-and-Mint Equilibrium.

A reworking of MV=PQ into a form more fitting for crypto assets and a discussion of velocity characteristics and implications.

A concise review of existing crypto asset valuation methodologies and ideas around additional methodologies that could be explored. Excellent reference appendix included.

An important qualitative valuation framework that introduces the concept of Total Value being the summation Current Utility Value and Discounted Expected Utility Value. The growth and oscillation expectations of these factors are reviewed.

An in-depth critique of MV=PQ and commentary around the characteristics of the components.

Detailed examination of Velocity in the context of MV=PQ. Discusses velocity in terms of too high, too low and just right. One of the first articles to shine a spotlight on the Velocity Problem.

There is an emerging consensus that velocity is a confounding problem in establishing cryptoasset value for single utility tokens.

A brief review of existing commentary on Velocity and new incremental examinations of the characteristics and implications of Velocity.

A foundational taxonomy of crypto asset categories including examples of each, the valuation implications for those categories and a helpful appendix of references.

This paper reveals the interdependence between social signals and price in the Bitcoin economy, namely a social feedback cycle based on word-of-mouth effect and a user-driven adoption cycle.

Explores the relationship between the “buzz factor” and investment returns. The report finds that crypto assets do not behave similarly to traditional currencies or commodities and that the industry is much more mature, and less speculative, than most assume.

Addresses the valuation of Bitcoin and other blockchain tokens in a new type of production economy: a decentralized financial network. This is one of the first economic models to incorporate both supply and demand side assumptions for Bitcoin.

We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe's law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at least four occasions, by bubbles that grow and burst.

This paper demonstrates that bitcoin’s medium- to long-term price follows Metcalfe’s law. Bitcoin is modeled as a token digital currency, a medium of exchange with no intrinsic value that is transacted within a defined electronic network.

One of the most trusted data providers in the crypto asset space. Coinmetrics provides clarity around their data cleansing methods, and the team has developed a number of new analysis approaches. The charting feature provides an easy way for users to explore valuation methods.