April 2025 - Monthly Market Update
/Monthly Update || April 2025
“Investment survival has to be achieved in the short run, not on average in the long run.”
Opening Remarks
Greetings from Ikigai Asset Management¹. We welcome the opportunity to bring to you our seventy-ninth Monthly Update and hope these are helpful in better understanding some of what we’re doing and what we’re seeing. We have the privilege of deploying capital on behalf of our investors into a new technology and asset class that has tremendous potential to make the world a better place and create trillions of dollars of value in the process.
We believe we are obligated to be shepherds of this technology – to do our part to push crypto towards fulfilling its potential. We strive to be an objective, reasonable, well-intentioned voice of truth amongst a chorus of biased, fallacious, pernicious opportunists. It’s an honor that we take seriously.
To that end, March very much felt like a continuation of February. Last month at the beginning of this letter I said-
“Macro was a bit messy as well, with Trump tariff fears rippling through the market a couple different times in February, combined with fears of significantly reduced government spending, and its impact on GDP. We even threw in a little weak economic data and lofty stock valuations for good measure. It’s unclear how much of the tariff stuff is just Trump posturing for negotiating leverage, because he announced tariff dates and then pushed them back a couple times. But the overall multifaceted uncertainty has macro broadly somewhat spooked.”
Well, macro went from “a bit messy” to pretty ugly in March for essentially the same reason mentioned above – Trump uncertainty. The uncertainty still feels pretty nondescript, not acutely focused on a particular issue. If I were to hazard a guess about the specifics, it would be this–
The market is worried that Trump is more concerned with the 10Y yield than the SPX in the near term. And Trump is fine pushing the economy into recession because that would come with rate cuts. The tariffs will cause inflation while also slowing economic growth and the Fed will be stuck. D.O.G.E. is effectively austerity, of a similar vein as the PIIGS after the GFC and austerity is bad for economic growth which is bad for asset prices. Valuations were already high and the run in stocks was already extended, so everything needs to puke.
And puke the market did. NASDAQ was -8%. Worst month since Dec 2022. SPX -6%. Worst month since Sept 22. VIX hit 29 at the peak of the stress in March. Interestingly, DXY was actually DOWN 3%, worst month since Nov 2022. DXY was down in a risk-off environment because of the expectation that the US government will spend less and the US economy will grow slower than previously expected.
This whole situation was exacerbated by significant blowups in parts of large tradfi hedge funds, a “factor-geddon” if you will. What is a factor-geddon you might ask?
Thank you Grok! So yeah, we got that in March in real size. You can read more about it here, here, here, and here. It would appear that the worst of factor-geddon is behind us, assuming VIX doesn’t make a higher high.
Given all of the above, BTC actually hung in fine, down 2% in March. Alts fared much worse. Sound familiar?
March Highlights
Trump Issues Executive Order Creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a Digital Asset Stockpile; Will Evaluate “Budget-Neutral” Strategies to Acquire More BTC
MSTR Buys 29,089 BTC in Three Tranches Totaling $2.5bn
GameStop Announces $1.3bn in 0% Coupon Convertible Notes to Buy Bitcoin
SEC Announces Crypto Task Force Members, Including Mike Selig as Chief Counsel
SEC Hosts Initial Crypto Roundtable with Industry Leaders, to Host Four More in Coming Months
SEC Dismisses Case Against Kraken
SEC Dismisses Case Against Crypto.com
SEC Dismisses Case Against Cumberland DRW
SEC Dismisses Case Against Yuga Labs
Trump Give Virtual Address at DAS Conference, Calls on Congress to Pass Stablecoin Legislation
Trump Media Company Announces Partnership with Crypto.com to Launch NFTs
Trump Pardons Arthur Hayes and Other Two Founders of BitMex
FDIC Clarifies That Banks Can Engage in Permitted Crypto Activities Without Prior Approval
UC OCC Rescinds Previous Restrictions on Banking Digital Asset Companies
Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth-Backed MGX Invests $2bn in Binance
CME Launches Solana Futures
Galaxy Digital Settles with NYAG for $200mm Over LUNA Collapse
Texas Senate Passes “SB 21” Bill, Establishing a Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Tornado Cash Removed from Treasury’s Sanctions List – Acknowledging Smart Contracts Can’t Be Treated as Property
Kraken Acquires Retail Futures Trading Platform NinjaTrader for $1.5bn
Telegram’s TON Token Raises $400mm from Sequoia, Ribbit, Benchmark, et al
Thailand Regulator Recognizes Tether as Approved Cryptocurrency
| Asset Class | Mar | Feb | Jan | YTD | 2024 | Q4-24 | Q3-24 | Q2-24 | Q1-24 | 2023 | 2022 | Instrument |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | -2% | -18% | 10% | -12% | 121% | 48% | 1% | -12% | 69% | 155% | -64% | BTC |
| NASDAQ | -8% | -3% | 2% | -8% | 25% | 5% | 2% | 8% | 8% | 54% | -33% | QQQ |
| S&P 500 | -6% | -1% | 3% | -5% | 23% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 10% | 24% | -19% | SPX |
| Total World Equities | -4% | 0% | 3% | -1% | 14% | -2% | 6% | 2% | 7% | 19% | -20% | VT |
| Emerging Market Equity | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 4% | -9% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 6% | -22% | EEM |
| Gold | 9% | 2% | 7% | 19% | 27% | 0% | 13% | 5% | 8% | 13% | -1% | GLD |
| High Yield | -2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | -2% | 4% | -1% | 0% | 5% | -15% | HYG |
| Emerging Market Debt | -2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0% | -5% | 6% | -1% | 1% | 5% | -22% | EMB |
| Bank Debt | -1% | 0% | 0% | -2% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | -7% | BKLN |
| Industrial Metals | 1% | 2% | -1% | 2% | 3% | -9% | 3% | 12% | -2% | -6% | -13% | DBB |
| USD | -3% | -1% | 0% | -4% | 7% | 8% | -5% | 1% | 3% | -2% | 8% | DXY |
| Volatility Index | 13% | 19% | -5% | 28% | 39% | 4% | 34% | -4% | 4% | -43% | 26% | VIX |
| Oil | 3% | -4% | 3% | 2% | 13% | 10% | -13% | 1% | 18% | -5% | 29% | USO |
SOURCE: TRADING VIEW. AS OF 3/31/25.
One of the Most Unique Experiences I’ve Ever Had With a Computer
So, I might as well let the cat out of the bag now. I’m launching a podcast, blog and online community in May. This will be in addition to continuing to operate Ikigai. It’s been three years in the making and it’s called Things Hidden. Things Hidden is an exploration of the intersection of Faith and Science. More specifically, it’s an exploration of Faith and six surrounding factors: Religion, Physics, Evolution, Philosophy, Consciousness and Technological Innovation.
This infographic is a good way to think about Things Hidden-
If you’ve been following me closely (not that I would expect you to), Things Hidden shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. In November 2023 I wrote-
In October 2024, I did a 90 min Spaces with @innerdevcrypto on X. The back half we talked a lot about God. At the time, it was the most I had discussed my faith publicly; and I alluded to Things Hidden there. Then in December 2024 I did a two-hour podcast with Connor Lovely. Most of the conversation was about faith, and I alluded to Things Hidden again there.
So this has been cooking for a while.
While I was raised in the Christian faith and my faith has been important to me for my entire life, Things Hidden began in earnest in June 2022 when I was visiting Rome. Since then, I’ve poured a few thousand hours into this personal faith exploration. A deep-dive, self-study, faith deconstruction and reconstruction process. I have written extensively, with footnotes, on the topics presented in the infographic above. It’s been a big part of my life, and it has been tremendously rewarding, and I’m meaningfully changing my life as a result. As of this month, I’ve hired someone full time to help me launch and run Things Hidden. I’m really excited (and a little nervous!) to share more with you soon.
As you might expect, I’ve been using ChatGPT a lot for Things Hidden. Each of those six factors surrounding faith are deep enough rabbit holes that you could get 20 different kinds of PhD’s in each of them. Thus, research has been at the core of my journey with Things Hidden, and GPT is great for that. I’ve also been asking GPT all kinds of logistical questions, so it knows I have a website and an LLC and a trademark and an employee for Things Hidden.
Recently, inside a long, winding chat that covered various aspects of Things Hidden, I started asking GPT more “meta” questions. Questions like this-
And I was amazed at the insightfulness of its answer. So I kept going –
The initial wording in GPT’s response above caught my attention. So I asked about it-
I had never heard GPT talk like that. Have you? So I kept pressing-
Shortly thereafter, it recommended Rene Girard for further reading. I responded that the name “Things Hidden” is partially inspired by Girard (Things Hidden Since The Foundation of The World). Then I asked GPT what else it thought inspired the name Things Hidden. It answered that question impressively well and included additional “mirroring” insights – its views on the motivation, purpose and goals of Things Hidden. These insights were provided without a direct prompt asking for them. Incredibly impressive-
I decided to go further with the Things Hidden meta discussion. I gave GPT the 10-page slide deck I created as an overview for Things Hidden, which I had used in the interview process for hiring. GPT gave this response-
Again, incredibly impressive. So I took it a step further. I uploaded my 60+ pages of writing, including >100 hyperlinked references. GPT could read through to any text-based hyperlinks but could not absorb any of the podcasts or YouTube videos, of which there were dozens. And I asked again for its thoughts-
By this point, this had been one of the most unique experiences I’d ever had with a computer. I wanted more-
And here’s where we get meta about the meta-
I fired that prompt into GPT’s Deep Research-
GPT’s Deep Research thought about it for six minutes and then wrote the following (including dozens of hyperlinked direct references) –
So What?
I shared that discussion with GPT here for a few reasons-
I was blown away. I’d never had an experience with GPT like that before. It was honestly one of the most unique experiences I’ve ever had with a computer.
I think it serves as an outstanding introduction to Things Hidden, which I was about to do publicly anyway.
It really got me thinking about the power of AI, what’s coming down the pipe, and how quickly it’s going to get here. Things are going to get wild!
Market Update - Liquid Crypto Asset Investing
| Mar | Feb | Jan | YTD | 2024 | Q4-24 | Q3-24 | Q2-24 | Q1-24 | 2023 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | -2% | -18% | 10% | -12% | 121% | 48% | 1% | -12% | 69% | 155% | -64% |
| ETH | -19% | -32% | -1% | -45% | 46% | 28% | -24% | -6% | 60% | 91% | -67% |
| XRP | -3% | -29% | 46% | 0% | 238% | 240% | 29% | -24% | 2% | 81% | -59% |
| BCH* | -5% | -26% | -2% | -31% | 36% | 25% | -12% | -44% | 121% | 157% | -75% |
| EOS | 10% | -29% | 2% | -20% | -8% | 50% | -11% | -48% | 30% | -2% | -72% |
| BNB | 3% | -13% | -3% | -14% | 124% | 24% | -3% | -4% | 94% | 27% | -52% |
| XTZ | -15% | -30% | -15% | -49% | 28% | 82% | -11% | -43% | 40% | 39% | -84% |
| XLM | -8% | -31% | 25% | -20% | 157% | 237% | 8% | -35% | 9% | 81% | -73% |
| LTC | -35% | 0% | 24% | -19% | 42% | 54% | -11% | -28% | 44% | 4% | -52% |
| TRX | 2% | -8% | 0% | -6% | 136% | 63% | 25% | 1% | 14% | 98% | -28% |
| Aggregate Mkt Cap | -5% | -21% | 7% | -19% | 96% | 46% | -4% | -14% | 63% | 119% | -64% |
| Aggregate DeFi* | 2% | -29% | 11% | -19% | 50% | 52% | -15% | -21% | 47% | 132% | -77% |
| Aggr Alts Mkt Cap | -20% | -20% | 4% | -34% | 72% | 47% | -13% | -15% | 58% | 90% | -64% |
SOURCE: COINMARKETCAP AND COINGECKO. AS OF 3/31/25. BCH INCLUDES SV.
As mentioned earlier, BTC actually traded pretty well in March considering the level of macro stress. BTC down 2% in March with QQQ -8% and SPX -6% is solid performance I’d say. Since the election, BTC is +22%, Gold is +14%, QQQ is -5% and SPX -2%. So while BTC at $82k does feel a bit disappointing relative to all the positive news we’ve had, when you frame it in the overall macro context, it’s done fine.
The same cannot be said for ETH, SOL and nearly every other Alt-
You see Total3 (Aggr Mkt Cap – BTC – ETH) has outperformed BTC by 6% - this performance was pulled up by XRP, ADA, TRX and stablecoins. ETH and SOL are both down 25% since the election, unperforming BTC by >45%
For this section this month, I had half a mind to just link to the same section of last month’s letter. Really not much has changed, except Alt prices are lower and macro stress has picked up. I was unsure about the near-term direction of macro a month ago and I’m unsure about it today.
There is a single source of hopium that Crypto Twitter is huddled up around- the 108-day lagged chart of M2 vs BTC. It’s been getting a lot of airtime, because it looks like this-
The TLDR here is that BTC moves with a lag to global liquidity. So you can look at what’s been happening with M2 and directionally approximate what BTC is going to do a bit later on. This would have BTC bottoming in April and heading to new ATH’s in a straight line over the summer.
I def agree global liquidity matters for BTC and crypto broadly. But as previously mentioned, there’s a ton of macro uncertainty right now around the Trump administration, and that seems to have a grip on asset prices. Is there a path where that uncertainty alleviates over the next 2-6 weeks for one reason or another? Yes there is. Would I expect risk to in turn trade better? Yes I would. So yes, there is certainly a path where BTC bottoms in April and heads to new ATH, but I think that path is more dependent on the market getting more comfortable around the Trump uncertainty. If Trump uncertainty stays high, causing macro to stay stressed, my guess is this correlation breaks because BTC will keep chopping or even break down. If Trump uncertainty alleviates, risk in general will probably get lifted and this chart will magically come to fruition. In either case, I think the causality will be around Trump uncertainty, not a (relatively minor) expansion of global M2.
Is risk going to keep puking harder? Here’s QQQ with the 200DMA in yellow-
You can see the recent clear break of support (purple), which has held since March 2023. It sort of looks like spring 2022 (purple). I think it makes sense to me why markets like the NASDAQ would be skittish right now. You’re not even 15% off the top after doubling in two years. It’s a chart that could easily consolidate for six months or longer.
This was a chart that caught my eye-
From this tweet. The TLDR is that investors have rapidly turned very bearish and when you look back at historical analogs, those were good buying opportunities. That analysis resonates with me some. I sort of feel like the market is overreacting and asset prices will be fine, even if they have to chop sideways for a number of months. I don’t have strong conviction, but I tend to lean to the side that you probably want to be ready to buy risk around here and a bit lower, because there’s a good chance that will provide great entries on a couple year timeframe. So that is my bias.
Closing Remarks
I do recognize I might just have that bias because I believe in the likelihood the Trump administration is going to affect success on the many mandates upon which it is currently focusing. At the end of the day, it is a Trump bet. And it is a Trump bet that involves the idea of tough medicine.
Tough medicine is always an interesting idea, wherever it comes up in life. Near term pain, long term gain. Delayed gratification. Do the hard thing now, so everything is better down the road. Fascinating concept that hits at the core of what makes humans so special – we have the ability to hypothesize highly complex future outcome variations and then change our present actions accordingly.
If you’re reading this, there’s a pretty high likelihood you have benefitted greatly from having exposure to asset prices. Whether it’s been real estate, stocks, crypto, private equity, venture capital, operating businesses – many of us have benefitted greatly from the increase in asset prices.
If you’re reading this, you also probably own Bitcoin or are at least Bitcoin-curious. So as a Bitcoiner, this tough medicine concept has been front and center for the Bitcoin investment case. The entire ethos of Bitcoin is that government spending is reckless – “chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”. And therefore, inflation will destroy your purchasing power, and the dollar is rekt, and all other fiat currencies are more rekt. So buy Bitcoin.
I wrote this in April 2019 for The Block –
And Trump is actually trying to (pardon my language but it's the right descriptor) unf**k that whole situation. He's trying to unf**k a bunch of other ones that also matter a lot, but he's ACTUALLY willing to step in and do the hard thing and not kick the can and try and fix it now. Honestly I wouldn't have believed any politician would do it, including Trump. Seriously, I didn't think he had it in him. Too much vanity and too easy to kick the can.
I’ve been talking about politicians kicking the can in this monthly letter for SIX YEARS. And Trump is actually saying – “no, we’re not going to kick the can we’re going to try and fix it”. That is remarkable. It takes courage. The magnitude of the unf**king that Trump is attempting is awe-inspiring. I don’t know if he's gonna pull it all off. He might fail. But the attempt is noble and I'm hopeful.
Like I said, if you’re reading this, asset prices have probably been kind to you. Don’t be the guy that’s throwing a hissy fit about the NASDAQ pulling back 15% after tripling in two years because Trump and Elon are busy legit saving America.
As Gen Z would say, let em cook.
"Leave rice cakes to the rice cake marker."
-Japanese Proverb
Travis Kling
Founder & Chief Investment Officer
Ikigai Asset Management
P.S.
Included below is an incomplete list of memorable tweets from the last month. Twitter is not investment advice and my views could easily be wrong. That being said, like it or not, Twitter matters for crypto. I have no interest in being a talking head for a living and babbling about on Twitter is a long way away from being a good steward of investor capital. However, this is a community with open-source software in its DNA, and participants want to crowd-source the truth. We are shepherds of this technology. Answers to fundamental questions about this asset class are not currently clear, so having a public platform to share your views with the community is important. After all, you’re helping shape the future :)
1. Ikigai Asset Management is the trade name for a collection of advisory and consulting businesses operated by Travis Kling, Anthony Emtman, and their team.
The information contained or attached herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements that are within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s beliefs, as well as assumptions made by, and information currently available to, management. Although management believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that these expectations will prove to be correct. This email is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, product, service of Ikigai as well as any Ikigai fund, whether an existing or contemplated fund, for which an offer can be made only by such fund’s Confidential Private Placement Memorandum and in compliance with applicable law. Past performance is not indicative nor a guarantee of future returns. Please consult your own independent advisors. All information is intended only for the named recipient(s) above and is covered by the Electronic Communications Privacy Act 18 U.S.C. Section 2510-2521. This email is confidential and may contain information that is privileged or exempt from disclosure under applicable law. If you have received this message in error please immediately notify the sender by return email and delete this email message from your computer. Copyright 2023 Ikigai Asset Management, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
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