January 2020 - Market Update
/Monthly Update || January 2020
“You want to take risk when others are fleeing from it, not when they’re competing with you to do so.”
Opening Remarks
Greetings from inside Ikigai Asset Management1 headquarters in Marina Del Rey, CA. We welcome the opportunity to bring to you our sixteenth Monthly Update and hope these are helpful in better understanding some of what we’re doing and what we’re seeing. We have the privilege of deploying capital on behalf of our investors into a new technology and asset class that we believe will fundamentally change the world and create trillions of dollars of value in the process.
We believe we are obligated to be shepherds of this technology – to help the world better understand the powerful potential of DLT and crypto assets, and to fund and be an ambassador for DLT projects that will change our lives forever.
To that end, WELCOME TO A NEW YEAR AND A NEW DECADE. We hope you’ve given yourself the time and space to reflect on the last year and the last decade. I know we have. A year ago, we were accepting our first initial dollars of outside capital into Ikigai. So much has changed since then. A decade ago, I was in my second year as an investment banking analyst at Simmons & Company, in the aftermath of the most severe market collapse since The Great Depression. So much has changed since then.
2020 promises to bring just as much, and likely more excitement than last year. The 2020’s promise to bring just as much, and likely more excitement than the last decade. Today we find ourselves deeply involved in something that barely existed a decade ago, and something that I didn’t know existed at all a decade ago. We strongly believe that thing, Distributed Ledger Technology and crypto assets, is an important piece of an even bigger, more important thing we call The Trust Revolution. We strongly believe The Trust Revolution will advance significantly in the coming decade and in the decades that follow. We feel obligated to do whatever we can to help that cause because we believe it will make the world a better place. It’s our honor to participate.
| Symbol | December | Q4-19 | Q3-19 | Q2-19 | Q1-19 | 2019 | % ATH | % Off Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | -5% | -13% | -23% | 164% | 10% | 92% | -64% | 124% |
| ETH | -15% | -28% | -38% | 105% | 6% | -3% | -91% | 55% |
| XRP | -15% | -25% | -35% | 28% | -12% | -45% | -95% | -25% |
| BCH | -6% | -3% | -47% | 154% | -1% | 30% | -93% | 170% |
| EOS | -7% | -13% | -49% | 38% | 63% | 0% | -89% | 62% |
| BNB | -13% | -13% | -51% | 86% | 182% | 123% | -44% | 223% |
| XLM | -24% | -26% | -41% | -3% | -5% | -60% | -95% | -39% |
| LTC | -13% | -26% | -54% | 101% | 99% | 36% | -86% | 80% |
| TRX | -14% | -8% | -55% | 36% | 25% | -29% | -95% | 21% |
| Aggregate Mkt Cap | -7% | -14% | -29% | 117% | 14% | 51% | -77% | 88% |
| Aggr Alts Mkt Cap | -11% | -16% | -40% | 68% | 18% | -1% | -89% | 34% |
A Look Back At 2019
We spent a few thousand hours this year researching, analyzing and investing in the crypto asset ecosystem. To be frank, it’s been a wild ride. We try to distill that work down to the most important points each month in our Monthly Update letter. While we’re always careful about giving specific predictions, we do try and provide some color on our directional expectations, albeit with the caveat that those expectations can and often do change. Over the last year, we’ve had some good calls, some bad calls (or at least not great), some interesting calls and some calls that are TBD. Below are some highlights.
January 1, 2019
[Good Call] “Zombie SAFTs – Dfinity, one of the most-hyped ICOs of 2018, announced on December 13th a delay of their product launch from Q1-19 to an unknown later date. We believe this trend will continue in 1H-19. Anecdotal reports of SAFTs being privately offered at significant discounts to the last round’s valuation increased in December. We believe this trend will continue in 1H-19.”
[Bad Call] “We do not believe crypto prices have bottomed yet. This view is informed by literally dozens of quantitative and qualitative signals that we track internally across our Four Foundations. Put simply- the preponderance of evidence leads us to believe prices will head lower in the first part of 2019."
[Interesting Call] “What we can say with a high degree of confidence is this- if central bankers and governments around the world are unwilling to tighten monetary and fiscal policy in an attempt towards ending the largest monetary and fiscal experiment in human history this is deeply, fundamentally, bullish crypto.”
[TBD Call] “Crypto isn’t ready for a financial crisis yet (which probably isn’t happening) or a recession (which probably is happening unless the Fed blinks).”
February 1, 2019
[Good Call] “Money is the killer app for DLT right now. The value proposition for BTC relative to its status quo (i.e., gold) is much more clearly understood than any other crypto asset’s value proposition is relative to its unique status quo.”
[Bad Call] “At time of writing, a retest of the mid-December lows of ~$3150 appears likely to occur in February, and we believe it is likely only a matter of time before that support level breaks and we make new lows.”
[Interesting Call] “From time to time, events happen that remind us why we believe there is an inevitability to the mass adoption of this technology and asset class. January 30th was one of those days. The Fed held its regularly scheduled FOMC meeting with a statement and press conference and the stance revealed by Jay Powell and the Fed was a capitulatory leap towards dovishness relative to only 6 weeks prior. On the path to future rate tightening, the Fed removed any reference to a gradual increase in rate hikes and replaced it with language around patience, acknowledgement of downside risks, tightening financial conditions and a lack of inflationary signals. In this meeting, the Fed moved decisively towards being “on hold” and even opened up the door for possible future rate cuts. Nothing short of a complete about-face from mid-December.”
[TBD Call] “There is an inevitability to the direction and distance this technology and asset class will go. The world isn’t going to wake up tomorrow and decide not to use this technology, any more than the world would wake up and decide autonomous cars aren’t compelling, or augmented reality isn’t fascinating. While we’re not precisely sure about the path of the train tracks or the speed of the locomotive, the crypto train has left the station and is moving down the track towards a multi-trillion dollar valuation. It isn’t stopping.”
March 1, 2019
[Good Call] “We believe this market may be shifting regimes, and the possibility that the bottom is in has increased meaningfully over the last month. There are a number of conflicting signals right now - reasons to be both bullish and bearish. While we maintain a bearish bias, we are currently seeing signs of a possible regime shift. One of main overriding difficulties in trying to interpret what the market is doing right now is answering the question - Is This Time Different? This Time Is Different has been a widowmaking phrase in markets for a long time, but crypto is not like other markets.”
[Bad Call] “That being said, we aren’t out of the woods by any means yet. We are getting mixed signals at present. BTC price was unable to make a higher high this month and is still approximately flat YTD. On-metrics do not look poised for a bull run. Real world adoption is still anemic at present. An emerging view we have is that this market may not put in a new low but could chop around from $3.5k-$6k for six months or longer.”
[Interesting Call] “After speaking with dozens of crypto ecosystem participants in 2019, including the full spectrum of investor types, it is clear to us that in October 2018 there was hundreds of millions of dollars on the sidelines ready to be deployed into crypto. When the mid-November price crash occurred the overwhelming majority of that capital took a step back and essentially said “yeah we’ll check back in six months”. Those investors didn’t stop doing work on the space and many of them understand the value proposition for certain crypto assets more clearly today than they did four months ago, but they did push their timelines for capital deployment into the future. The global macro backdrop, which we discussed at length last month and will touch on again here, is meaningfully more supportive for crypto assets today than Q4-18. Specifically, the Fed’s actions January 29th were deeply bullish crypto – both in terms of being a risk asset, and by increasing the need to hedge against the largest monetary and fiscal policy experiment in human history. From what we’ve seen and heard over the last month, this backdrop is reaccelerating interest in crypto and it might very well put an end to this bear market. After all, if it wasn’t for Quantitative Easing, none of us would probably be here.”
[TBD Call] “As we have said many times before, we are in the midst of the largest monetary and fiscal policy experiment in human history and it is unlikely to end without significant stress on risk assets. A bet on BTC is a bet to opt out of that experiment – an insurance policy on the irresponsibility of central banks and governments around the world. To the extent those central banks and governments act increasingly irresponsibly, that is deeply bullish crypto. It’s bullish for risk assets and its bullish for a non-sovereign, hard-capped supply, global, immutable, decentralized, digital store of value.”
April 1, 2019 (written before the 25% price increase)
[Good Call] “To that end, we are seeing a crypto market that is bottoming and may very well have already bottomed several months ago – and that has been a fascinating development to observe unfold. This bottoming process has caught many market participants by surprise, as some aspects of the price action over the last two months have not been as expected and may not be indicative of a healthy bottoming process. This has been a hated rally – an indication market participants have been in disbelief and a good sign for bulls.”
[Bad Call] “Based solely on BTC price action, we are due for a breather in the near-term here. There are TD Sequential 9 Sells on the 3D and 1W; horizontal resistance here; the 200W MA here; diagonal resistance at $4500; and declining volumes. Never without the chicanery, the market may spike on a bull trap to $4500 or even a bit higher, but we would likely expect a swift retracement from there. Our current base case is we chop around from ~$3500-$6k for the next several months, if not the remainder of 2019.”
[Interesting Call] “We believe a relatively small number of highly sophisticated, well-capitalized, highly risk tolerant market participants have been walking this crypto market higher over the last seven weeks, beginning with LTC on Feb 8. Let’s call these market participants Risky Whales - crypto’s own version of Wyckoff’s Composite Operator. The price action on the weekend of Feb 23rd/24th, where we saw a large, abnormal, unexplainable pump on Saturday followed by a larger, abnormal, unexplainable dump on Sunday, we have reason to believe was driven by a single Risky Whale – chicanery at its finest. BTC’s price has not been higher since that weekend, while many smaller cap, manipulatable cryptos have seen their prices soar.”
[TBD Call] “With a few months of hindsight, it may make complete sense that the U-turn on central banks’ monetary policy put the bottom in for crypto. Look around at the world – politicians, Wall Street, big tech companies. The world needs Distributed Ledger Technology and crypto assets and the potential they bring now more than ever. We are in the midst of a Trust Revolution. That trend will not reverse. These problems will not go away. Our blossoming industry will deliver the solution.”
May 1, 2019
[Good Call] “In light of April’s price action, with the context of what we know about reflexivity, we are currently asking ourselves – does this market have the ability to range? BTC daily just generated a “golden cross”, where the 50d MA crosses above the 200d MA. There is a host of capital that wasn’t ready to buy until that happened. BTC is now knocking on the door of low $6,000s, where a host of new capital will be willing to buy. That opens up the possibility to $10,000 where an additional host of capital will want to buy.”
[Bad Call] “NVT Signal is elevated currently – a sign that a pullback could be in store.”
[Interesting Call] “The crypto market bottoming was driven by 1) the backdrop of central bank dovish capitulation earlier this year – a theme that continues to expand as we move through 2019; 2) materially positive newsflow from the crypto ecosystem YTD; and 3) help from the Risky Whales, a group we introduced in last month’s letter that has played an integral role in crypto price action in 2019.”
[TBD Call] “Most of the largest companies in the world are actively experimenting with blockchain. Much of that experimentation is occurring on private permissioned ledgers - an important incremental step. These walled gardens, especially with interoperability to public chains, are the gateway to the real thing – a digital world built on a foundation of BFT DLT. While critics of this technology and asset class can still be found, their doubts and objections are beginning to be drowned out by the chorus of optimism and belief in the potential of crypto assets and DLT. At Ikigai, we firmly believe 10 years from now it will be considered silly to have ever thought this asset class wasn’t going to completely change the world – just as the naysayers of the internet from the early 90’s seem so silly now. That is an outstanding backdrop to generate superior risk-adjusted returns and we are honored and excited to be a part of it.”
June 1, 2019
[Good Call] “We believe BTC is separating itself from the rest of the crypto asset landscape in terms of institutional investability. It’s not that venture and liquid crypto funds aren’t institutionally investable, because some certainly are. Equity in crypto infrastructure companies is also institutionally investable. But in terms of specific crypto assets, BTC is currently in a league of its own. BTC 1) is large; 2) is liquid; 3) is traded on regulated changes; 4) has both regulated and unregulated, cash and physically-settled futures; 5) has a deep OTC market; 6) has a burgeoning options market; 7) has mostly clear regulatory status; 8) is custodied by Fidelity; 9) is moving closer to an ETF; 10) has almost zero competition from other crypto assets; 11) is not centrally led; 12) has a clear value proposition in the context of monetary and fiscal policies globally; and 13) has clear value accrual characteristics via a monetary premium. For many current and potential institutional investors looking for direct exposure to crypto assets right now, their choices are limited, and most are focused on BTC.”
[Bad Call] “Last month we stated that new all-time highs were well within reach for 2020. We now believe that may have proven too conservative, and there is a meaningful chance new ATH’s are possible in 2019, and likely in 2020. This swift increase in price is in no way set in stone right now – many risks are present. But the path to $20k BTC in 2019, if it indeed happens, will most largely be driven by a specific unfolding of the incredibly dynamic global macro landscape that we find ourselves in currently. We’ve been framing BTC this way publicly for months now, and it holds truer today than ever.
[Interesting Call] “Since first introducing the concept of the Risky Whale in our April 1st Monthly Update, we have given keynote presentations about it, talked on TV about it, and had online publications write articles about it. As discussed previously, the Risky Whales have played an integral part in pulling crypto prices out of a tailspin of negative reflexivity and moving firmly back to the upside. The Risky Whales are still present in this market, but their actions are not dragging the market higher to the same extent as earlier this year. In fact, like the mythical perpetual motion machine, the Risky Whales have given this market enough of an initial push and had enough help from the global macro landscape and crypto-specific news flow, that positive price action has taken on a life of its own – the very definition of reflexivity. The market currently still needs a nudge every now and then from Risky Whales, and chicanery in crypto is indeed alive and well (as discussed below), but a bullish trend has emerged that is looping in new investors every day. That trend is not without risk though – to the extent it stalls out and the Risky Whales are inclined to distribute BTC at current levels rather than push prices higher, we could see a meaningful retracement.”
[TBD Call] “I want to be explicitly clear here – central bankers globally have no plan to end the largest monetary policy experiment in human history. The Fed, with Trump in its ear, has become completely beholden to the market – that has been made abundantly clear over the last 6 months. Any kind of rate increase or Quantitative Tightening would crash all asset prices and send the world into a recession. The Fed, which has become politicized, has no political will to do that. I am not alone in viewing this as a dangerous situation. Ray Dalio wrote an in-depth article on May 1st about the inevitable implementation of MMT or other similarly radical monetary policy easing measures, as rate cuts and QE will prove ineffective at stimulating the economy in the coming downturn. On May 28th the CIO of Pimco’s U.S. core strategies called it “probably the riskiest credit market we have ever had”. Ray Dalio runs the largest hedge fund in the world. Pimco manages $1.8tn in assets. The whole world is about to cut rates, juice more QE and begin discussion of even more radical moves in 2H-19 and into 2020. This is deeply bullish for a non-sovereign,hardcapped supply, global, immutable, decentralized, digital store of value. BTC is a hedge against monetary and fiscal policy irresponsibility by central banks and governments globally. It is an insurance policy unlike anything the world has ever had before, and the world needs it right now.”
July 1, 2019
[Good Call] “Last month we talked about the dangers of parabolic advances - they end in collapse. Fib retracements are one of the most effective tools for gauging the end of the pullback after a parabolic advance. At time of writing, we have retraced through the 23 Fib and are approaching the 38 Fib at ~$9.8k. It may hold or we may need to retrace even further, perhaps down to the 50 Fib at ~$8.5k before resumption of the uptrend. Either level of retracement can still be viewed as corrective within the context of an overall uptrend.”
[Bad Call] “To that end, we are well on our way to new ATHs for BTC after a truly spectacular Q2-19 - the fourth best quarterly performance since 2012. In our Monthly Update letter that went out June 1st we said, “last month we stated that new all-time highs were well within reach for 2020. We now believe that may have proven too conservative, and there is a meaningful chance new ATHs are possible in 2019, and likely in 2020”. Our conviction on that view increased in June as the reflexivity we know to be foundational to this asset class has strengthened its grasp on this market. We are anecdotally seeing that from many vantage points – 1) mainstream media’s crypto coverage has exploded higher; 2) “no-coiners” are coming out of the woodwork; 3) exchange volumes have skyrocketed; 4) investor interest in Ikigai has increased; and 5) crypto conference attendance has increased. These are qualitative factors that feed into the Metcalfe’s Law relationship that crypto prices have with Network Effect and they are screaming bullish.”
[Interesting Call] “As we have been pointing out for several months, BTC price has accelerated away from Fundamental Valuation indicators with a velocity not previously witnessed in prior market bottoms and subsequent recoveries. From an on-chain metrics perspective, we have not really had a recovery that looked like this current recovery. We believe there is sound reasoning behind this recovery being more on-exchange led than on-chain compared to prior cycles. That said, we are watching these metrics closely. As stated above and last month, we believe that we may be entering a period of re-accumulation where on-chain metrics “catch up” with price before a massive explosion higher in both.”
[TBD Call] “As we have stated for months, the backdrop for YTD crypto price action has been 1) strongly net positive crypto-specific news flow in conjunction with 2) a specific confluence of global macro events – the bullishness of this backdrop increased in June and the outlook for 2H-19 and 2020 is bright. Facebook’s Libra, arguably the most important crypto project since Bitcoin, was formally introduced on June 18th. Additionally, the global macro backdrop of 1) monetary policy irresponsibility from central banks globally; 2) fiscal policy irresponsibility from governments globally; 3) tariff wars; 4) Chinese capital flight; 5) government overreach; 6) Big Tech overreach; and 7) data privacy was furthered in the month of June. Make no mistake about it – we are living in a wacky time for global macro. Things are weird and getting weirder. Crypto broadly, and BTC specifically, is well-positioned to act as a hedge against, or alternative to, that confluence of macro situations. To borrow from the Old Testament, it appears that crypto as a technology and asset class has arrived “for such a time as this”.”
August 1, 2019
[Good Call] “At the current moment, we believe we have seen a shift in market structure and there is a chance we are seeing the first innings of a new regime - a topic we will dive into deeper below. There are significant risks to the downside at present - active portfolio management and strict adherence to risk management is required to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns.”
[Bad Call] “Currently BTC is in the midst of a pullback. As previously mentioned, the nature of this price action has made the recent period difficult to have a firm grasp on. We currently believe this pullback is transitory but are not currently highly convicted that we won’t see a lower low before seeing a higher high.”
[Interesting Call] “BitMEX/CFTC. Alameda. Summertime. These are the ingredients for the shift in market structure that we’ve witnessed over the last several weeks. The permanence, or lack thereof, of these factors is unknown. To what degree each ingredient is driving this new market structure is unknown. Will the CFTC investigation prove to be a non-event, and BitMEX activity will pick back up? Will another liquidity provider of equal prowess pick up where Alameda left off? Will everyone get back in front of the screens after Labor Day and we’ll see liquidity come roaring back to life? We don’t know the answers to these questions yet. We think these are just temporary choppy weather patterns within an overall bullish season. But there’s a chance the season may be changing. We’re watching carefully.”
[TBD Call] “Given that array of reactions from politicians, it should come as no surprise that the analyses of these reactions by market participants were mixed as well. But what was clear to us is that politicians by and large understand the difference between Libra and Bitcoin and are not threatened by regulated speculation on Bitcoin. Jay Powell’s Congressional testimony kicked off this string of political crypto events on July 10th, which marked the top of the market for July. In the subsequent seven days, BTC price marched down from $13k to $9.5k more or less unabated. This was the main contributor to BTC generating its first negative monthly performance since January. This price reaction was healthy and welcomed specifically in the context of the political backlash against Libra. Libra is good for Bitcoin, so to the extent there’s risk to Libra’s launch, that is negative for BTC on the margin. BTC price advanced aggressively into and after the announcement of Libra project details on June 18th. In our view, Libra was primarily responsible for taking BTC from $8700 to nearly $14000. While we believe the Libra project will ultimately come to fruition, a view we unpack in detail in our quarterly call, there is increased risk to Libra currently, and we could also just be wrong in our view that Libra will launch. So, a market backing out that bullish advance from $8.7k as Libra’s launch comes under intense regulatory scrutiny makes fundamental sense. Fundamentals driving price action is bullish crypto and bullish for Ikigai’s fundamentals-based investing strategies.”
September 1, 2019
[Good Call] “We believe a higher likelihood outcome could be a short-term, further correction down to the $7.5-$8.5k range. This would still be within the range of historical pullbacks in an overall cyclical uptrend for BTC when looking at past cycles.”
[Bad Call] “Bitcoin has had consecutive negative monthly returns twice during previous bull cycles. It has never had three in a row during a bull cycle.”
[Interesting Call] “Bitcoin has collapsed after a parabolic advance (increasing at an increasing rate). That is to be expected. Fibonacci Retracements are helpful in determining areas to expect a bounce. Depending on how you draw the lines, we have not yet closed below the 23 Fib. If that level breaks, which right now feels reasonably likely, it opens the door for the 50 Fib in the low $8k’s. That could be a good level to expect a bounce. We believe a sustained pullback to levels lower than that would only come with a significant pickup in stress in traditional asset classes, which as we mentioned, is on the table.”
[TBD Call] “For months now, we’ve discussed how the global macro landscape is “weird and getting weirder”. Those conditions were furthered in August. The Argentine Peso collapsed 26% this month. A Danish bank began offering 10-year mortgages at a -0.5% interest rate, meaning you pay the bank back less than you borrowed to buy a house. Siemens issued $1.6bn in bonds with a 0 coupon priced at a -0.315% yield, the lowest yield ever priced for a primary corporate bond offering. Germany issued €824mm of 30-year bonds with a 0 coupon at a -0.11% yield, the first time a Germany 30-year primary has ever priced negative. Other financial instruments are responding to this weirdness accordingly. Gold was +8% in August, reaching a 6½ year high. Silver was +13% in August, breaking out of a multiyear range. A chorus of the most well-respected investors on the planet are sounding the alarm bells. Druckenmiller is worried. Gunlach says the odds of recession before the 2020 election are 75%. Dalio is comparing today to the late 1930’s.”
October 1, 2019
[Good Call] “Finally, broken down descending triangles produce “measured moves” to the downside equal to the peak height of the triangle. Note that we reached those levels and actually went a bit lower in December. Note that the measured move of the current breakdown is ~$7k.”
[Bad Call] “It looks increasingly likely that we’re heading for either a mild recession or perhaps kissing the zero GDP growth line for a couple quarters in 2020.”
[Interesting Call] “We had many discussions with the full spectrum of potential investors in September – from accredited investors looking to invest $100k to large institutional investors looking to invest $10mm+. Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano’s meme of “get off zero” has gained real traction with this full spectrum of investors. Investors are becoming increasingly convinced that zero exposure to the asset class is the wrong number, but investors are confused about how to get off zero. Do they buy a little BTC and store it at Fidelity and that’s their exposure? Do they buy an index fund, like you do for stocks? Should they invest in a fund? If it’s a fund investment, should they go with a venture fund? If it’s a venture fund, should it be equity only? Tokens and equity? Should they invest in a liquid hedge fund? If it’s a hedge fund, should it be a discretionary strategy? Quant strategy? This landscape has proven difficult to navigate for investors, largely because the underlying dynamics of the crypto ecosystem are evolving at a breakneck pace.”
[TBD Call] “This is the ideal backdrop for a non-sovereign, hardcapped supply, global, immutable, decentralized, digital store of value to gain mass adoption. However severe a BTC pullback may be – whether 1) the worst is behind us; 2) we find a bottom lower in the $6-$7k range; or 3) the unlikely event we retrace the full YTD move back to the $3k’s – that will present what is likely a generational buying opportunity for Bitcoin. Make no mistake, Bitcoin is deeply antifragile – perhaps its single most attractive characteristic. I liken Bitcoin to an X-Man toddler. Yeah you can push on it right now and it will tump over. And you can even kick it in the head while its tumped over. But it will be fine. It will get back up, no worse for wear. And when it grows up, it is going to kick your ass.”
November 1, 2019
[Good Call] “Can we be sure this move higher wasn’t a headfake? Not yet.”
[Bad Call] “But in times like these it helps to look at larger timeframe oscillators. Below is the 3D price, MACD and RSI. These look like bottoms to us.”
[Interesting Call] “Despite the 10/25 fireworks, overall interest levels in crypto have appeared to wane in the last few months, and its too early to tell if the price move last week will reignite enthusiasm from those not already committed to the industry. We’re not exactly sure why these interest levels plateaued in early July and began declining, but we’re seeing and hearing anecdotal evidence from numerous sources. New projects raising capital has slowed. Incremental project innovation has slowed. Crypto fund AUM growth has slowed. Trading volumes had slowed (prior to the 25th). We believe this broad waning in interest may be because there is confusion about value propositions across the ecosystem – from equity investments to fund investments to Alts. We believe this waning may be because of poor messaging from the crypto ecosystem to the “pre-coiners” – an example of Metcalfe’s Law sputtering out. We believe this waning may be because of a global dollar liquidity shortage. Lastly, we believe this waning may be because of decreased risk appetite due to slowing global GDP growth and upheaval in the traditional VC landscape.”
[TBD Call] “There are massive implications at stake in this situation. US/China relations are about the incumbent global supremacy fighting off a formidable challenger. It encompasses every aspect of global financial markets and economic growth. Democracy and communism. The world reserve currency. Global hegemony.This makes Xi’s explicit public move towards blockchain innovation last week of massive importance. It has long been known that China has been working on a digital sovereign currency, named the DCEP. While China banned ICOs and the purchase of crypto with fiat in 2017 (to combat capital flight), a robust peer-to-peer crypto purchasing network has immerged in China. Chinese-controlled crypto funds moved to Singapore and served as funnels to get RMB out of the country. China-controlled mining pools account for ~80% of BTC hashpower and an estimated 40% of BTC hashpower is physically located in mainland China. Make no mistake, China has never been anything other than firmly entrenched in this technology and asset class. But now they’re open about it.”
December 1, 2019
[Good Call] “To keep it simple, if PlusToken has 50,000 more BTC to sell over the next 1-2 months, number go down, or at the very least not go up much. These flows are trackable and we’re tracking them. It would be reasonable to assume price will bottom in advance of that selling being done, as investors anticipate this significant overhang coming to an end. Where price is at that point is difficult to say. My gut tells me the lows aren’t in yet, but we’re watching closely.”
[Bad Call] N/A
[Interesting Call] “I say this often, but there is tremendous risk in this asset class. Layers of risk. Esoteric and opaque risk. Risk at every turn. Throughout its 11-year history Bitcoin has produced stunning returns. Even after the 47% drawdown from the highs, BTC is still up >100% YTD and the best performing asset class by a wide margin. Which is to say, the returns have been commensurate with the risk taken. We believe this combination of attractive returns in the face of high degrees of risk lends itself to active portfolio management. There is no playbook for managing capital in this asset class, so we’re doing our best to take our past experiences in related fields and build on those to create a best-in-class investment framework that will generate attractive risk-adjusted returns on a consistent basis while deploying capital into a technology and asset class we strongly believe will change the world for the better.”
[TBD Call] “China “blockchain is good” ripped price on 10/25. We’ve subsequently walked all that back and then some. PlusToken has probably been selling a lot. They’ll be done soon. Miners may have been selling some too. They’ll be done soon too, if they’re not already. What’s the takeaway? This too shall pass.”
Closing Remarks
2019 was a year fittingly dominated by the same overarching theme that dominated the 2010’s – central bank distortion of capital markets and asset prices. Global markets gained $17tn in value in 2019 and that was, by and large, a function of central bank actions. Central bankers and governments around the world are now 11+ years into the largest monetary and fiscal policy experiment in human history – Quantitative Easing while simultaneously running increasingly larger deficits on top of increasingly untenable debt levels.
As we turn the corner on a new decade, there is no plan to end this experiment because there is no political willpower to do so, as ending it would cause a widespread collapse in asset prices and a severe global recession. 2019 was a year where politics and monetary policy became intertwined to a degree never previously witnessed - so that political willpower, or lack thereof, is an even larger driving factor for global growth and asset prices today than in years and decades past. Central bankers have made their intentions clear. They will kick the can for as long as possible by absolutely any means necessary – stealing growth and prosperity from the future for the sake of new S&P 500 ATH’s today. This is generational theft, plain and simple - a theme that emerged with strength in 2019 and promises to be a key feature of the coming decade.
This will be the backdrop for a non-sovereign, hardcapped supply, global, immutable, decentralized, digital store of value to gain mass adoption. The road to mass adoption over the coming decade will not come easy. The status quo is highly incentivized to push back again a non-sovereign form of money, so we should expect them to do so in the coming decade. The interplay between central bankers, governments and the people they are supposed to represent will be a major driving force for the adoption, and thus value, of a non-sovereign money in the coming decade.
To have high conviction that a non-sovereign money will gain mass adoption in the future, you need to be burning the candle at both ends. One end is monetary & fiscal policy irresponsibility: Global QE + deficits + debt. Today we have that. The other end is society shining a light on corruption to a degree where change is demanded by the people. This is The Trust Revolution. 2019 saw this light beginning to shine brighter. We believe the coming decade will see that light grow into a radiant illumination. We’re here to do our part to bring that to fruition.
“Three years on the rock.”
Travis Kling
Founder & Chief Investment Officer
Ikigai Asset Management
Invest
Ikigai is currently fielding interest from new investors. Contact us to see if you qualify.
P.S.
Included below is an incomplete list of memorable tweets from the last month. Twitter is not investment advice and my views could easily be wrong. That being said, like it or not, Twitter matters for crypto. I have no interest in being a talking head for a living and babbling about on Twitter is a long way away from being a good steward of investor capital. However, this is a community with open-source software in its DNA, and participants want to crowd-source the truth. We believe we have built a team and a process that will produce these truths more quickly and more clearly than our competitors. We are shepherds of this technology. Answers to fundamental questions about this asset class are not currently clear, so having a public platform to share your views with the community is important. After all, you’re helping shape the future :)
1. Ikigai Asset Management is the trade name for a collection of advisory and consulting businesses operated by Travis Kling, Timothy Lewis, Anthony Emtman, and their team.
The information contained or attached herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements that are within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s beliefs, as well as assumptions made by, and information currently available to, management. Although management believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that these expectations will prove to be correct. This email is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, product, service of Ikigai as well as any Ikigai fund, whether an existing or contemplated fund, for which an offer can be made only by such fund’s Confidential Private Placement Memorandum and in compliance with applicable law. Past performance is not indicative nor a guarantee of future returns. Please consult your own independent advisors. All information is intended only for the named recipient(s) above and is covered by the Electronic Communications Privacy Act 18 U.S.C. Section 2510-2521. This email is confidential and may contain information that is privileged or exempt from disclosure under applicable law. If you have received this message in error please immediately notify the sender by return email and delete this email message from your computer. Copyright 2020 Ikigai Asset Management, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE; FOR INFORMATION ONLY
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS
